FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: an 8-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 57¢ today.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+1.8 (average of 5 pollsters, Oct 3).Market · Toss-upR 57¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+7.54 in 2022.PollsR+1.8MarketR 57¢2022 resultR+7.5
MarketR 57¢PollsR+1.82022R+7.5
Market and polls both favor Jackson.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total contributions, cycle to date through July 31, 2026.What these filings sayThe headline figure is L. Total Monetary Contributions (B + J), Campaign to Date as published by Georgia Government Transparency and Campaign Finance Commission (State Ethics Commission); it is not identical to total receipts as the FEC defines them.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.