FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 21-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 76¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+0.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 17).Market · Lean RR 76¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+21.18 in 2022.PollsR+0.3MarketR 76¢2022 resultR+21.2
MarketR 76¢PollsR+0.32022R+21.2
Market and polls both favor Uthmeier.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
SEA Research ↗Feb 25 to Mar 1 · n=800 LVR+3Rodriguez sponsorR+3 · Rodriguez sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+21.2
Ashley Moody (R)
60.6% to 39.4% · 2022 general election
def. Aramis Ayala (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.