Florida Attorney General — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 21-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 87¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upD+3 — MDW Communications, Apr 3.Market · Likely RR 87¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+21.18 in 2022.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 6 points toward the Democrat over 25 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 87¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+3

MDW Communications ↗ · n=1,834 LV D+3 PARTISAN

Public Policy Polling ↗ · n=500 RV R+3 PARTISAN

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+21.18

Ashley Moody (R)

60.59 — 39.41 · 2022 general election

def. Aramis Ayala (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.6 to 1

Jose Javier Rodriguez$1.10M

James Uthmeier$1.75M

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 08-14 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.