Why Louisiana's House races are different this year

No party nominees. Everyone runs on November 3, and if no one tops 50%, the top two meet on December 12.

Apr 29Supreme Court decides Louisiana v. Callais; the 2024 map is struck down
Apr 30Governor suspends the House party primaries of May 16 and June 27
May 14Act 7: one open primary on Nov 3, runoff on Dec 12, for the House only
May 29New map signed (Act 2, SB 121); the 6th District is redrawn
Aug 5 to 7Qualifying: 39 candidates across six seats
Nov 3Open primary: every candidate on one ballot
Dec 12Runoff between the top two, if needed

Louisiana's Senate race stayed on the closed-primary track: Julia Letlow (R) v Jamie Davis (D). Sources: supremecourt.gov (24-109); gov.louisiana.gov/news/5093; legis.la.gov (HB 842, Act 7); legis.la.gov (SB 121, Act 2); Louisiana Secretary of State candidate list for November 3. Party contract prices: Kalshi, October 12.

Open primary · November 3 · runoff December 12

Louisiana 1st District

DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedLouisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +37.9 to Trump +38.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗

Steve Scalise (R) has held this seat since May 2008, after a special election, and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.

PresidentialR+37.9→R+38.2Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+37.9) and the new (R+38.2). Same ballots, new map.

Republican-held · 4 candidates · Metairie, the north shore and the river parishes below New Orleans.

Kalshi · which party wins the seat

4.9¢REPUBLICAN 97.7¢

A party contract: it holds whoever the Republican is. View market on Kalshi ↗

How this race is decided

A candidate with more than half the vote on November 3 wins outright. Otherwise the top two, of any party, meet on December 12.

2 Republicans · 1 Democrat · 1 no party

The incumbent Steve Scalise

House Majority Leader; represents the 1st since 2008

No public poll of this race. To avoid a runoff, he needs more than half of every vote cast on November 3, against 3 challengers.

Randall Arrington Lauren Jewett E. "Liddy" Glass

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.7¢ Republican.

Safe R

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Market · Safe RR 97.7¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+42.8 in 2024.

No public polls. The market favors the Republicans.

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 97.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

—

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

R+42.8

Steve Scalise (R)

66.8% to 24.0% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesLouisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +37.9 to Trump +38.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗

def. Mel Manuel (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

1 of 4

1 of 4 candidates have a federal report on file; 3 not yet verified.

Candidate	Raised 2025 to 2026	Thru
Steve Scalise	$10.64M ↗	Jul 18
Randall Arrington	Not yet verified
Lauren Jewett	Not yet verified
E. "Liddy" Glass	Not yet verified

No comparable filings across the field.