FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 30-point Republican win in 2024, priced at 95.8¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+3 (20/20 Insight, Aug 26).Market · Safe RR 95.8¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+29.7 in 2024.PollsR+3MarketR 95.8¢2024 resultR+29.7
MarketR 95.8¢PollsR+32024R+29.7
Market and polls both favor McCormick.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; McCormick leads 4.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.