Colorado 5th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 14-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 79¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upR+1 — GSG, Jul 27.Market · Lean RR 79¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+13.8 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 79¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+1

GSG ↗ B- Jul 16 - 21 · n=450 LV R+1 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+13.8

Jeff Crank (R)

54.66 — 40.87 · 2024 general election

def. River Gassen (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.4 to 1

Jessica Killin$3.14M

Jeff Crank$2.18M

PULLED 08-03 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.