Ohio 10th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Tom F. McMasters (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 18-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 86¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Lean RR+5 — GSG, Jul 29.Market · Likely RR 86¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+18.42 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 86¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+5
GSG ↗ B-
Jul 20 - 23 · n=700 LV
R+5
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+18.42
Michael R. Turner (R)
57.64 — 39.22 · 2024 general election
def. Amy Cox (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.5 to 1
Kristina Knickerbocker$362.7K
Mike Turner$894.6K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.