DEFENDED SEATLikely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +5.7 to Trump +7.8 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Michael R. Turner (R) has held this seat since 2013 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.
PresidentialR+5.7→R+7.8Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+5.7) and the new (R+7.8). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 86¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+8 (average of 2 pollsters, Jul 23).Market · Likely RR 86¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+18.42 in 2024.PollsR+8MarketR 86¢2024 resultR+18.4
MarketR 86¢PollsR+82024R+18.4
Market and polls both favor Turner.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+8
GSG ↗B-Jul 20 to 23 · n=700 LVR+5Knickerbocker sponsorR+5 · Knickerbocker sponsor · counts as R+7 at half weight
FM3 Research ↗Jul 6 to 12 · n=535 LVR+7House Majority PAC sponsorR+7 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+9 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+18.4
Michael R. Turner (R)
57.6% to 39.2% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +5.7 to Trump +7.8 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Amy Cox (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Turner leads 2.4 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.