FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 16-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 91.2¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 11.55-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Lean RR+7.2 (average of 7 pollsters, Oct 7).Prior result · Likely RR+16.41 in 2022.Market · Likely RR 91.2¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 11.55 to 1PollsR+7.22022 resultR+16.4MarketR 91.2¢
MarketR 91.2¢PollsR+7.22022R+16.4FundraisingR 11.55 to 1
Market and polls both favor Moody.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 5.8 points toward the Democrat over 27 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of 7 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.