Florida U.S. Senate (Special) — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 16-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 92.7¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 11.56-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Lean RR+8 — Univ. of North Florida, Jul 20.Prior result · Likely RR+16.41 in 2022.Market · Likely RR 92.7¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 3 points toward the Republican over 31 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 92.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+8

Univ. of North Florida ↗ A Jul 8 - 17 · n=848 LV R+8 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+16.41

Marco Rubio (R)

57.68 — 41.27 · 2022 general election

def. Val Demings (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 11.56 to 1

Angie Nixon$974.8K

Ashley Moody$11.27M

PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.