Elections Intelligence

John Gregory Vincent

SC-7U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Likely R Underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Vincent is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Vincent at 6.7¢ against Fry's 96.2¢, down 0.2¢ since August 3. The polling average has Fry ahead by 6 points, and Fry leads 5.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Vincent · Democratic contract
6.7¢
▼ 0.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on John Gregory Vincent by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 11¢ · low 6¢Oct 12
John Gregory VincentDemocratic
6.7¢
Russell FryRepublican · incumbent
96.2¢

20,048 traded · 4,631 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Vincent v Fry

Metric by metric
Vincent
Fry
6.7¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
96.2¢
$297.3K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$1.72M
$62.4K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$1.04M
37%
Latest pollBlueprint Polling, D sponsor · Jul 28
41%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

South Carolina 7th District
Latest poll
R+6

Blueprint Polling, D sponsor, July 28.

Prior result
R+29.9

2024 general election, won by Russell Fry.

Fundraising
5.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.