Elections Intelligence
Why Louisiana's House races are different this year

No party nominees. Everyone runs on November 3, and if no one tops 50%, the top two meet on December 12.

  1. Apr 29Supreme Court decides Louisiana v. Callais; the 2024 map is struck down
  2. Apr 30Governor suspends the House party primaries of May 16 and June 27
  3. May 14Act 7: one open primary on Nov 3, runoff on Dec 12, for the House only
  4. May 29New map signed (Act 2, SB 121); the 6th District is redrawn
  5. Aug 5 to 7Qualifying: 39 candidates across six seats
  6. Nov 3Open primary: every candidate on one ballot
  7. Dec 12Runoff between the top two, if needed

Louisiana's Senate race stayed on the closed-primary track: Julia Letlow (R) v Jamie Davis (D). Sources: supremecourt.gov (24-109); gov.louisiana.gov/news/5093; legis.la.gov (HB 842, Act 7); legis.la.gov (SB 121, Act 2); Louisiana Secretary of State candidate list for November 3. Party contract prices: Kalshi, October 12.

Open primary · November 3 · runoff December 12

Louisiana 5th District

OPEN SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedLouisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +36.3 to Trump +34 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗

Julia Letlow (R) has held this seat since April 2021, after a special election, and is not running; the district was redrawn in May 2026.

PresidentialR+36.3→R+34Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+36.3) and the new (R+34). Same ballots, new map.

Republican-held · 9 candidates

Kalshi · which party wins the seat
3.4¢REPUBLICAN 97.7¢
A party contract: it holds whoever the Republican is. View market on Kalshi ↗
How this race is decided

A candidate with more than half the vote on November 3 wins outright. Otherwise the top two, of any party, meet on December 12.

6 Republicans · 3 Democrats

No public poll of this race. A candidate needs more than half of every vote cast on November 3 to win outright; otherwise the top two meet on December 12.

Stewart Cathey Jr.Misti CordellOscar "Omar" DantzlerMichael EcholsGabe FirmentAustin MageeDan McKayPatricia "Pat" MooreAntonio Wilson

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.7¢ Republican.

Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe RR 97.7¢: traders' price for a Republican hold. Prior result · Safe RR+37 in 2024.

No public polls. The market favors the Republicans.

The market moved 4¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 97.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+37.0

Julia Letlow (R)

62.9% to 25.9% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesLouisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +36.3 to Trump +34 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗

def. Michael Vallien Jr. (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above
6 of 9

6 of 9 candidates have a federal report on file; 1 not yet verified.

PartyCandidateRaised 2025 to 2026Thru
Michael Echols$2.98M ↗incl. $2.43M candidate loansJul 18
Misti Cordell$555.7K ↗incl. $206.5K candidate loansJul 18
Dan McKay$90.0K ↗incl. $39.2K candidate loansJul 18
Gabe Firment$49.0K ↗Jul 18
Stewart Cathey Jr.$13.5K ↗Jul 18
Austin Magee$8.9K ↗Jun 30
Oscar "Omar" DantzlerNot yet verified
Patricia "Pat" MooreNo filing on record
Antonio WilsonNo filing on record

The open primary is on November 3, which is 22 days away. If no one tops 50%, the top two meet on December 12.