Elections Intelligence

Louisiana 5th District

OPEN SEATALL-PARTY 11-03
SAFE R
ME
Michael Echols Republican · Open-seat nominee
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
REPUBLICAN 98¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
BM
Blake Miguez Republican · Open-seat nominee
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 37-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.

Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe RR 98¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold. Prior result · Safe RR+37 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+37

Julia Letlow (R)

62.9 — 25.9 · 2024 general election

def. Michael Vallien Jr. (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

No comparable filings from both major-party nominees.

BALLOT & DATES General Nov 3, 2026Runoff 12-12 All-candidate November ballot · 2 candidates qualified