Alabama Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 38-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 95¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Lean RR+8 — Yes, every kid, Aug 4.Market · Safe RR 95¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+37.73 in 2022.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 95¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+8

Yes, every kid ↗ Jul 8 - 11 · n=601 LV R+8 INDEPENDENT

Cygnal ↗ A+ Nov 12 - 13, 25 · n=605 LV R+19 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+37.73

Ivey, Kay (R)

66.91 — 29.18 · 2022 general election

def. Flowers, Yolanda (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Doug Jones$1.66M

Tommy Tuberville$9.22M

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-31 · STATE FILING

Cash on hand at the period end, not money raised.