FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 38-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 94.6¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Likely RR+13 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 25).Market · Likely RR 94.6¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+37.73 in 2022.PollsR+13MarketR 94.6¢2022 resultR+37.7
MarketR 94.6¢PollsR+132022R+37.7
Market and polls both favor Tuberville.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+37.7
Kay Ivey (R)
66.9% to 29.2% · 2022 general election
def. Yolanda Rochelle Flowers (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.