Kentucky 6th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 26-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 71¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean RR 71¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+26 in 2024.

Signal clarityLow — market and prior disagreeas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 7¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 71¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

DCCC ↗ B- Jul 29 - 30 · n=474 LV EVEN D SPONSOR

GQR ↗ A Jun 24 - 28 · n=440 LV R+3 D SPONSOR

PPP ↗ B Apr 24 - 25 · n=675 RV EVEN D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+26

Andy Barr (R)

63 — 37 · 2024 general election

def. Randy Cravens (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1 to 1

Zach Dembo$1.46M

Ralph Alvarado$1.52M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.