Kentucky 6th District · Elections Intelligence

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 26-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 70¢ today.

Lean R

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Polling · Toss-upD+4 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 5).Market · Lean RR 70¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+26 in 2024.

Market favors Alvarado, but polls favor Dembo.

The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 8 points toward the Democrat over 43 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 70¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

D+4

Change Research ↗ C- Sep 29 to Oct 5 · n=524 LV D+9 D sponsor D+9 · D sponsor · counts as D+7 at half weight

Lake Research ↗ B+ Sep 30 to Oct 4 · n=400 LV D+3 D-leaning firm

GQR ↗ A Sep 25 to 30 · n=401 LV D+5 Dembo sponsor D+5 · Dembo sponsor · counts as D+3 at half weight

Average of the latest poll from each of 3 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.

Earlier polls · 4

Lake Research ↗ B+ Aug 17 to 23 · n=400 LV D+1 House Majority PAC sponsor D+1 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight

DCCC ↗ B- Jul 29 to 30 · n=474 LV EVEN D sponsor EVEN · D sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight

GQR ↗ A Jun 24 to 28 · n=440 LV R+3 Dembo sponsor R+3 · Dembo sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight

PPP ↗ B Apr 24 to 25 · n=675 RV EVEN D-leaning firm

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

R+26.0

Andy Barr (R)

63.0% to 37.0% · 2024 general election

def. Randy Cravens (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jun 30

Zach Dembo$1.46M ↗$491.3K cash

Ralph Alvarado$1.52M ↗$398.0K cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; the two campaigns have raised about the same, so fundraising takes no place on the spectrum.