North Carolina 5th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Robert B. Luffman (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 19-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 95¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Likely RR+18.95 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 95¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 95¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+18.95
Virginia Foxx (R)
59.47 — 40.53 · 2024 general election
def. Chuck Hubbard (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
4.2 to 1
Chuck Hubbard$394.7K
Virginia Foxx$1.66M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.