Elections Intelligence

Randy Villegas

CA-22U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Lean D Favored
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Villegas is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Villegas at 91.9¢ against Valadao's 12¢, up 11.9¢ since July 31. The polling average has Villegas ahead by 2 points, and Valadao leads 1.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Villegas · Democratic contract
91.9¢
▲ 11.9¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Randy Villegas by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 93¢ · low 80¢Oct 12
Randy VillegasDemocratic
91.9¢
David G. ValadaoRepublican · incumbent
12.0¢

142,486 traded · 89,356 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Villegas v Valadao

Metric by metric
Villegas
Valadao
91.9¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
12.0¢
$2.65M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$4.93M
$571.8K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$3.37M
48%
Latest pollTulchin Research, House Majority PAC sponsor · Jun 21
44%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

California 22nd District
Latest poll
D+2

Tulchin Research, House Majority PAC sponsor, June 21.

Prior result
R+6.8

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by David G. Valadao.

Fundraising
1.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.