FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 28-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 91.8¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely RR 91.8¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+28.33 in 2024.Polling · Safe RR+30 (co/efficient, Sep 30).MarketR 91.8¢2024 resultR+28.3PollsR+30
MarketR 91.8¢PollsR+302024R+28.3
Market and polls both favor Cline.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above