FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 16-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 90¢ today.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 90¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+15.65 in 2020.Polling · Lean DD+6.8 (average of 7 pollsters, Oct 5).MarketD 90¢2020 resultD+15.7PollsD+6.8
MarketD 90¢PollsD+6.82020D+15.7
Market and polls both favor Pappas.
The market moved 3¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 3 points toward the Republican over 25 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through August 19, 2026; Pappas leads 3.7 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.