New Hampshire U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP BOTH NOMINEES DETERMINED SEPTEMBER 8

DEM PRIMARY · SEP 8 KXSENATENHD-26 ↗

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

EVEN Chris Pappas 95¢ Karishma Manzur 7¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM · 3 others on the ballot, none of them priced

REP PRIMARY · SEP 8 KXSENATENHR-26 ↗

Decides which Republican appears on the November ballot.

EVEN John E. Sununu 99¢ Scott Brown 4¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM · 6 others on the ballot, none of them priced

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION SENATENH-26 ↗

Democratic nominee Determined September 8

KALSHI PARTY MARKET CHECKED 08/27

DEMOCRAT 85¢17¢

Republican nominee Determined September 8

Also on the November ballot · Matt Giovonizzi (I) · Tim Harris (I)

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 16-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 85¢ today.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Likely DD+15.65 in 2020.Market · Likely DD 85¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upR+2 — UNH, Aug 27.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 4 points toward the Democrat over 45 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 85¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+2

UNH ↗ C Aug 20 - 24 · n=1,878 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP R+2 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+15.65

Shaheen, Jeanne (D)

56.64 — 40.99 · 2020 general election

def. Messner, Corky (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Democratic nominee determined Sep 8, 2026.

Republican nominee determined Sep 8, 2026.

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.