New Jersey 9th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Terrisa Bukovinac (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 2-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 96.3¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 96.3¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 6.08-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+1.6 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 96.3¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+1.6
Nelida Pou (D)
50.8 — 49.2 · 2024 general election
def. Billy Prempeh (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 6.08 to 1
Nellie Pou$2.66M
Rosie Pino$437.8K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.