DEFENDED SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +22.7 to Harris +24 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Maxwell Frost (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialD+22.7→D+24Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+22.7) and the new (D+24). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 98.5¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 98.5¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+24.75 in 2024.MarketD 98.5¢2024 resultD+24.8
MarketD 98.5¢2024D+24.8
No public polls. The market favors Frost.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+24.8
Maxwell Frost (D)
62.4% to 37.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +22.7 to Harris +24 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Willie Montague (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.