Elections Intelligence

Rhett Marques

AL-2U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Lean R Favored
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Marques is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Marques at 74¢ against Figures's 27¢, up 4¢ since August 3. The polling average has Marques ahead by 2.3 points, and the two campaigns have raised about the same.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Marques · Republican contract
74.0¢
▲ 4.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Rhett Marques by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 80¢ · low 68¢Oct 12
Rhett MarquesRepublican
74.0¢
Shomari FiguresDemocratic · incumbent
27.0¢

190,067 traded · 160,004 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Marques v Figures

Metric by metric
Marques
Figures
74.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
27.0¢
$1.32M
RaisedFEC, through July 22
$1.36M
$187.7K
Cash on handFEC, through July 22
$662.6K
47%
Latest pollTulchin Research, House Majority PAC sponsor · Aug 31
47%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

Alabama 2nd District
Polling average
R+2.3

Average of 3 pollsters, June 25 to August 31.

Prior result
D+9.2

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Shomari Figures.

Fundraising
1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.