Tom Perriello
VA-5What the Signal reads
Lean R
Perriello is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Perriello at 24¢ against McGuire's 77¢, up 5¢ since August 3. The polling average has McGuire ahead by 3.5 points, and Perriello leads 1.2 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Perriello · Democratic contract
24.0¢
▲ 5.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Tom Perriello by name.
167,247 traded · 124,252 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Perriello v McGuire
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Virginia 5th DistrictPolling average
R+3.5
Average of 2 pollsters, September 24 to September 28.
Prior result
R+15.0
2024 general election, won by John J. McGuire III.
Fundraising
1.2 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.