Elections Intelligence

California 12th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Jamie Joyce Democratic · Challenger
KALSHI PERSON MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
SIMON 94¢11¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Lateefah Simon Democratic · Incumbent
FTP RACE SIGNAL

Nothing live is reporting on this seat. Its last general election was a 31-point Democratic hold in 2024.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+30.8 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-26
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+30.8

Lateefah Simon (D)

65.4 — 34.6 · 2024 general election

def. Jennifer Tran (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
46.6 to 1
Jamie Joyce$31.1K
Lateefah Simon$1.45M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Top-two primary 06-02 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 Top-two field settled · both advancers on the November ballot COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄