OPEN SEATLean RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +16.3 to Trump +15.7 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Daniel Webster (R) has held this seat since 2017 and is not running; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialR+16.3→R+15.7Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+16.3) and the new (R+15.7). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 88¢ Republican.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+2 (MDW Comms. (adjusted), Jul 29).Fundraising · Lean RR 43.83-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 88¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+20.75 in 2024.PollsR+2FundraisingR 43.83 to 1MarketR 88¢2024 resultR+20.8
MarketR 88¢PollsR+22024R+20.8FundraisingR 43.83 to 1
Market and polls both favor Strada.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+2
MDW Comms. ↗Jul 28 to 29 · n=1,044 LVEVEND sponsorEVEN · D sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight
The latest poll on file. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+20.8
Daniel Webster (R)
60.4% to 39.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +16.3 to Trump +15.7 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Barbie Harden Hall (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.