Elections Intelligence

Minnesota 7th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE R
Erik Osberg Democratic · Challenger
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
6.9¢REPUBLICAN 97.8¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Michelle Fischbach Republican · Incumbent
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 41-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 97.8¢ today.

Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe RR 97.8¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold. Prior result · Safe RR+41 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 97.8¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+41

Michelle Fischbach (R)

70.45 — 29.44 · 2024 general election

def. A J “John” Peters (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
Michelle Fischbach$1.29M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-22 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 08-11 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 R settled · D settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄