Elections Intelligence

Mariannette Miller-Meeks

IA-1U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Likely DThe seat Underdog
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What the Signal reads

Likely D

Miller-Meeks is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Miller-Meeks at 13¢ against Bohannan's 89¢, down 15¢ since July 31. The polling average has Bohannan ahead by 5 points, and the two campaigns have raised about the same.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Miller-Meeks · Republican contract
13.0¢
▼ 15.0¢since July 31
Jul 3148 daily readings · high 39¢ · low 13¢Oct 12
Mariannette Miller-MeeksRepublican · incumbent
13.0¢
Christina BohannanDemocratic
89.0¢

277,397 traded · 107,541 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Miller-Meeks v Bohannan

Metric by metric
Miller-Meeks
Bohannan
13.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
89.0¢
$7.21M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$7.05M
$4.69M
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$5.43M
35%
Latest pollThe Bullfinch Group · Jul 16
40%
U.S. Representativesince 2021
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Iowa 1st District
Latest poll
D+5

The Bullfinch Group, July 16.

Prior result
R+0.2

2024 general election, won by Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

Fundraising
1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.