Elections Intelligence

Texas 25th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE R
Dione Sims Democratic · Challenger
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
9.3¢REPUBLICAN 95.4¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Roger Williams Republican · Incumbent
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 99-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 95.4¢ today.

Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe RR 95.4¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold. Prior result · Safe RR+98.75 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 95.4¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+98.75

Roger Williams (R)

99.37 — 0.63 · 2024 general election

def. Chad Hagg (WRITE-IN). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
Roger Williams$1.42M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 03-03 · HELDRunoff 05-26 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 R settled · D settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄