Massachusetts 1st District — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 01 DECIDES THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 01 · DEMOCRATIC KXMAPRIMARY-01D26 ↗

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

JW EVEN Richard Neal 89¢ Jeromie Whalen 14¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION KXHOUSERACE-MA01-26 ↗

The settled side holds the Republican nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Democrat wins on September 1, 2026.

DEMOCRAT 99.9¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Democratic nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 1, 2026Republican nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 1, 2026

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 25-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.9¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+25.1 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+25.1

Richard Neal (D)

62.4 — 37.3 · 2024 general election

def. Nadia Milleron (I). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

—

Democratic nominee determined Sep 1, 2026.

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.