DEFENDED SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +17.9 to Trump +20.4 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
David P. Joyce (R) has held this seat since 2013 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.
PresidentialR+17.9→R+20.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+17.9) and the new (R+20.4). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 96.6¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 22.87-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+26.83 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 96.6¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 22.87 to 12024 resultR+26.8MarketR 96.6¢
MarketR 96.6¢2024R+26.8FundraisingR 22.87 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Joyce.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+26.8
David P. Joyce (R)
63.4% to 36.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +17.9 to Trump +20.4 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Brian Bob Kenderes (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.