DEFENDED SEATToss-up to Lean DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It loses St. Petersburg and pairs Tampa-area territory with areas to the east and south. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +7.7 to Trump +10.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Kathy Castor (D) has held this seat since 2013 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialD+7.7→R+10.5Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+7.7) and the new (R+10.5). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 67¢ Democratic.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Likely DD+15.36 in 2024.Polling · Lean DD+8.7 (St. Pete Polls, Jul 15).Market · Lean DD 67¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.2024 resultD+15.4PollsD+8.7MarketD 67¢
MarketD 67¢PollsD+8.72024D+15.4
Market and polls both favor Castor.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+15.4
Kathy Castor (D)
57.0% to 41.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It loses St. Petersburg and pairs Tampa-area territory with areas to the east and south. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +7.7 to Trump +10.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Robert "Rocky" Rochford (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 29, 2026; Castor leads 1.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.