Florida 14th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Brian Lambert (L), Salomon Hernandez Sr. (other) and Keith Varian (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 15-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 71¢ today.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Likely DD+15.36 in 2024.Polling · Lean DD+8.7 — St. Pete Polls, Jul 16.Market · Lean DD 71¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 11¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 71¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+8.7
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+15.36
Kathy Castor (D)
56.95 — 41.59 · 2024 general election
def. Robert Rochford (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.1 to 1
Kathy Castor$2.34M
Mike Beltran$2.12M
PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 03-31 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.