Illinois 16th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 100-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 95.9¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 8.83-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 95.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+99.8 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 95.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+99.8

Darin LaHood (R)

99.9 — 0.1 · 2024 general election

def. Scott Summers (G). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 8.83 to 1

Paul Nolley$415.7K

Darin LaHood$3.67M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.