FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
Nothing live is reporting on this seat. Its last general election was an 18-point Democratic hold in 2022.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Likely DD+18.2 in 2022.2022 resultD+18.2
2022D+18.2
No public polls. The market favors Bonta.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
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The Kalshi event on this seat prices named candidates rather than party control, so it answers who wins and not whether the seat changes hands. It gives the signal no reading; each candidate's own price is shown in the prediction market module.
Polling
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+18.2
Rob Bonta (D)
59.1% to 40.9% · 2022 general election
def. Nathan Hochman (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.