New York 17th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 6 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Toss-up

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 69¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Lean RR+5 — co/efficient, Jul 23.Prior result · Lean RR+6.31 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 11 points toward the Republican over 16 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 69¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+5

co/efficient ↗ B Jul 20 - 22 · n=1,292 LV R+5 R SPONSOR

FM3 Research ↗ Jun 27 - Jul 1 · n=509 LV D+6 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+6.31

Michael Lawler (R)

52.13 — 45.82 · 2024 general election

def. Mondaire L. Jones (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.9 to 1

Cait Conley$4.32M

Mike Lawler$8.17M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.