FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 6 points in 2024 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 59¢.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Toss-upD 59¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upR+1.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 30).Prior result · Lean RR+6.31 in 2024.MarketD 59¢PollsR+1.32024 resultR+6.3
MarketD 59¢PollsR+1.32024R+6.3
Market favors Conley, but polls favor Lawler.
The market moved 6¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
co/efficient ↗BJul 20 to 22 · n=1,292 LVR+5R-leaning firm
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 1
FM3 Research ↗Jun 27 to Jul 1 · n=509 LVD+6House Majority PAC sponsorD+6 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as D+4 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+6.3
Michael Lawler (R)
52.1% to 45.8% · 2024 general election
def. Mondaire L. Jones (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Lawler leads 1.8 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.