VACANT SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +39.6 to Harris +37.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) held this seat until April 2026.
PresidentialD+39.6→D+37.2Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+39.6) and the new (D+37.2). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 97.6¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 97.6¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 51.69-to-1 in receipts.MarketD 97.6¢FundraisingD 51.69 to 1
MarketD 97.6¢FundraisingD 51.69 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Schultz.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above