Iowa 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by less than a point in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 78¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Lean DD+5 — The Bullfinch Group / Independent Center, Jul 28.Prior result · Toss-upR+0.19 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 6¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 78¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+5

The Bullfinch Group / Independent Center ↗ July 13–16, 2026 · n=705 LV D+5 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+0.19

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

49.98 — 49.79 · 2024 general election

def. Christina Bohannan (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1 to 1

Christina Bohannan$7.05M

Mariannette Miller-Meeks$7.21M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.