Massachusetts 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

THE NOVEMBER FIELD · NEXT NOMINATING EVENT 09-01

Democratic — SETTLED

Lori Trahan Democratic · Nominee

Republican — SETTLED

Gary J. Grossi Republican · Nominee

View the primary field · 5 candidates

Lori Trahan Democratic KAKevin Ades other GCGaige Ms. Clark other LTLori Trahan other Gary J. Grossi Republican

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 98-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.9¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe DD+97.5 in 2024.Market · Safe DD 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+97.5

Lori Trahan (D)

97.5 — 0 · 2024 general election

def. Other candidates (other). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

235.3 to 1

Lori Trahan$1.58M

Gary J. Grossi$6.7K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.