Pennsylvania 9th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 41-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 97.6¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe RR 97.6¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+41 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 97.6¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+41

Dan Meuser (R)

70.5 — 29.5 · 2024 general election

def. Amanda Waldman (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

2.7 to 1

Rachel Wallace$697.9K

Daniel Meuser$1.90M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.