DEFENDED SEATLikely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +23.7 to Trump +15.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Warren Davidson (R) has held this seat since June 2016, after a special election, and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.
PresidentialR+23.7→R+15.6Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+23.7) and the new (R+15.6). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 92.4¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely RR 92.4¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+25.62 in 2024.MarketR 92.4¢2024 resultR+25.6
MarketR 92.4¢2024R+25.6
No public polls. The market favors Davidson.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+25.6
Warren Davidson (R)
62.8% to 37.2% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesOhio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. It becomes somewhat less Republican, going from Trump +23.7 to Trump +15.6 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Vanessa Enoch (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.