DEFENDED SEATLean DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It adds coastal territory north of the Rio Grande Valley that used to be in the 27th. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +4.4 to Trump +10.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Vicente Gonzalez (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in September 2025.
PresidentialR+4.4→R+10.1Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+4.4) and the new (R+10.1). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in September 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 85¢ Democratic.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 85¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+2.58 in 2024.Polling · Toss-upD+1.5 (average of 3 pollsters, Aug 22).MarketD 85¢2024 resultD+2.6PollsD+1.5
MarketD 85¢PollsD+1.52024D+2.6
Market and polls both favor Gonzalez.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Ragnar ↗BJun 14 to 16 · n=400 LVR+3R sponsorR+3 · R sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight
NRCC Co/efficient ↗BApr 25 to 29 · n=777 RVR+1NRCC sponsorR+1 · NRCC sponsor · counts as D+1 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+2.6
Vicente Gonzalez (D)
51.3% to 48.7% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesTexas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It adds coastal territory north of the Rio Grande Valley that used to be in the 27th. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +4.4 to Trump +10.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Eric Flores (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Gonzalez leads 2.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.