Texas 34th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 3-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 76¢ today.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Lean DD 76¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+3 — TSU - B. Jordan, Aug 26.Prior result · Toss-upD+2.58 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 6 points toward the Democrat over 51 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 76¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+3

TSU - B. Jordan ↗ B- Jul 27 - 30 · n=700 LV D+3 INDEPENDENT

Ragnar ↗ B Jun 14 - 16 · n=400 LV R+3 R SPONSOR

NRCC Co/efficient ↗ B Apr 26 - 28 · n=800 RV R+1 R SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+2.58

Vicente Gonzalez (D)

51.29 — 48.71 · 2024 general election

def. Mayra Flores (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

2.7 to 1

Vicente Gonzalez$3.77M

Eric Flores$1.41M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.