Why Louisiana's House races are different this year

No party nominees. Everyone runs on November 3, and if no one tops 50%, the top two meet on December 12.

Apr 29Supreme Court decides Louisiana v. Callais; the 2024 map is struck down
Apr 30Governor suspends the House party primaries of May 16 and June 27
May 14Act 7: one open primary on Nov 3, runoff on Dec 12, for the House only
May 29New map signed (Act 2, SB 121); the 6th District is redrawn
Aug 5 to 7Qualifying: 39 candidates across six seats
Nov 3Open primary: every candidate on one ballot
Dec 12Runoff between the top two, if needed

Louisiana's Senate race stayed on the closed-primary track: Julia Letlow (R) v Jamie Davis (D). Sources: supremecourt.gov (24-109); gov.louisiana.gov/news/5093; legis.la.gov (HB 842, Act 7); legis.la.gov (SB 121, Act 2); Louisiana Secretary of State candidate list for November 3. Party contract prices: Kalshi, October 12.

Open primary · November 3 · runoff December 12

Louisiana 2nd District

DEFENDED SEATSafe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedLouisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. It becomes much more Democratic, going from Harris +31.4 to Harris +47.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

Troy A. Carter (D) has held this seat since May 2021, after a special election, and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.

PresidentialD+31.4→D+47.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (D+31.4) and the new (D+47.4). Same ballots, new map.

Democratic-held · 5 candidates

Kalshi · which party wins the seat

DEMOCRATIC 99.6¢1.6¢

A party contract: it holds whoever the Democrat is. View market on Kalshi ↗

How this race is decided

A candidate with more than half the vote on November 3 wins outright. Otherwise the top two, of any party, meet on December 12.

1 Republican · 1 Democrat · 1 Libertarian · 2 no party

The incumbent Troy A. Carter

New Orleans; represents the 2nd since 2021

No public poll of this race. To avoid a runoff, he needs more than half of every vote cast on November 3, against 4 challengers.

Peter Williams Lisa Ballay Walter "Rocky" Beach Renada Collins

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 99.6¢ Democratic.

Safe D

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Prior result · Safe DD+46.7 in 2024.Market · Safe DD 99.6¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.

No public polls. The market favors the Democrats.

As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.6¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

—

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

D+46.7

Troy A. Carter (D)

60.3% to 13.6% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesLouisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. It becomes much more Democratic, going from Harris +31.4 to Harris +47.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

def. Christy Lynch (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

1 of 5

1 of 5 candidates have a federal report on file; 4 not yet verified.

Candidate	Raised 2025 to 2026	Thru
Troy A. Carter	$1.41M ↗	Jul 18
Peter Williams	Not yet verified
Lisa Ballay	Not yet verified
Walter "Rocky" Beach	Not yet verified
Renada Collins	Not yet verified

No comparable filings across the field.