FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 23-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 90.7¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Lean RR+7 (average of 5 pollsters, Oct 3).Market · Likely RR 90.7¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+23.24 in 2022.PollsR+7MarketR 90.7¢2022 resultR+23.2
MarketR 90.7¢PollsR+72022R+23.2
Market and polls both favor Pillen.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Lake Research ↗B+Sep 8 to 14 · n=900 LVEVENSponsor unconfirmed (released by the Walz campaign)EVEN · Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Walz campaign) · counts as R+2 at half weight
SurveyUSA ↗A+Sep 8 to 13 · n=503 LVR+7.7Independent
Average of the latest poll from each of 5 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 5
PPP ↗BSep 1 to 2 · n=559 RVR+1Democratic Governors Association sponsorR+1 · Democratic Governors Association sponsor · counts as R+3 at half weight
Lake Research ↗B+Apr 25 to 29 · n=900 LVR+2Walz sponsorR+2 · Walz sponsor · counts as R+4 at half weight
PPP ↗BApr 6 to 7 · n=670 RVR+5Walz sponsorR+5 · Walz sponsor · counts as R+7 at half weight
Lake Research ↗B+Dec 11 to 17 · n=900 LVR+5Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Walz campaign internal)R+5 · Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Walz campaign internal) · counts as R+7 at half weight
Lake Research ↗B+Jul 23 to 29 · n=900 LVR+12Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Walz campaign internal)R+12 · Sponsor unconfirmed (reported as a Walz campaign internal) · counts as R+14 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+23.2
Jim Pillen (R)
59.2% to 36.0% · 2022 general election
def. Carol Blood (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts, as filed through each campaign's latest filing, June 16 to September 29, 2026.What these filings sayJoint gubernatorial ticket committee, figures cover the ticket, not the individual; figures cover the stated reporting period.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.