Monica De La Cruz
TX-15What the Signal reads
Cruz is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Cruz at 17¢ against Pulido's 84¢, down 28¢ since August 3. The polling average has Pulido ahead by 5.3 points, and Cruz leads 1.7 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Monica De La Cruz by name.
2,360,313 traded · 1,738,203 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Cruz v Pulido
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Texas 15th DistrictAverage of 3 pollsters, May 25 to September 28.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Monica De La Cruz.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+17.9 → R+17.9
Texas redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 4, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed on Aug. 29, 2025. A federal court blocked the map, but the U.S. Supreme Court put that ruling on hold in December 2025 and reversed it in April 2026, so the new lines are in place for 2026. It's rebuilt from three districts. About two-fifths is the old 15th, and the rest comes from the old 27th and 34th. Its 2024 presidential margin stays the same (Trump +17.9).