New York 2nd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 20-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 88¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 7.61-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 88¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+19.53 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 88¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+19.53

Andrew R. Garbarino (R)

59.74 — 40.21 · 2024 general election

def. Rob Lubin (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 7.61 to 1

Patrick Halpin$461.8K

Andrew R. Garbarino$3.51M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.