California 48th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 19 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Lean D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 88¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+2 — Competitive Edge Research & Communication, Jul 29.Prior result · Likely RR+18.59 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 3¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 88¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2

Competitive Edge Research & Communication ↗ 07-29 · n=500 LV D+2 PARTISAN

Lake Research ↗ July 9–14, 2026 · n=500 LV D+2 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+18.59

Darrell Issa (R)

59.29 — 40.71 · 2024 general election

def. Stephen Houlahan (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1 to 1

Marni von Wilpert$2.17M

Jim Desmond$2.26M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.