California 48th District

OPEN SEATLean D to Likely DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. The formerly inland district adds Palm Springs and San Diego-area voters. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +15.3 to Harris +3.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

Darrell Issa (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is not running; the district was redrawn in August 2025.

PresidentialR+15.3→D+3.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+15.3) and the new (D+3.4). Same ballots, new map.

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 92¢ Democratic.

Likely D

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Market · Likely DD 92¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Lean DD+6.6 (average of 2 pollsters, Oct 7).Prior result · Likely RR+18.59 in 2024.

Market and polls both favor Wilpert.

Polling moved 6.9 points toward the Democrat over 36 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 92¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

D+6.6

SurveyUSA ↗ A+ Oct 1 to 7 · n=517 LV D+9.9 Independent

Lake Research ↗ July 9 to 14, 2026 · n=500 LV D+2 Wilpert sponsor D+2 · Wilpert sponsor · counts as EVEN at half weight

Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.

Earlier polls · 1

SurveyUSA ↗ A+ Aug 27 to Sep 1 · n=522 LV D+3 Independent

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

R+18.6

Darrell Issa (R)

59.3% to 40.7% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. The formerly inland district adds Palm Springs and San Diego-area voters. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +15.3 to Harris +3.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

def. Stephen Houlahan (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jun 30

Marni von Wilpert$2.17M ↗$825.0K cash

Jim Desmond$2.26M ↗$1.23M cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; the two campaigns have raised about the same, so fundraising takes no place on the spectrum.