Elections Intelligence

Michael R. Turner

Ran for Ohio's 10th District

Turner is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Strong D edge. The market prices a Republican hold of the seat at 0¢. The polling average has Turner ahead by 5 points, and Turner leads 1.3 to 1 in money raised.

Ohio, with the state flag10

The market

Kalshi ↗
▼ 86.0¢since August 3
Michael R. TurnerRepublican party contract · incumbent
0.0¢
Kristina KnickerbockerDemocratic party contract
100.0¢

The 2026 race

Polling
R+5

The polls had Turner ahead by 5 points across 3 pollsters.

Prior result
R+18.4

Turner won this seat in 2024 by 18.4 points, 57.6% to 39.2%, over Amy Cox.

Fundraising
1.3 to 1

Turner raised $1.32M to Knickerbocker's $1.01M through October 14.

Ohio's 10th District race

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+5.7 → R+7.8

Ohio had to redraw its map before 2026. The bipartisan Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously for a new plan on Oct. 31, 2025, and it stays in place until the next census. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +5.7 to Trump +7.8 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗

The general election was on November 3.