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Michael R. Turner

U.S. House H architectural icon OfficeHouse Republican Likely to win
INCUMBENT ON THE 2026 BALLOT LIKELY R KALSHI · 86¢ · CHECKED 1:29 AM ET
WHAT THE SIGNAL READS ON TURNER
THE SEAT THEY ARE IN

Likely R

Michael R. Turner is the sitting U.S. Representative for Ohio's 10th district and is defending it, a seat the band rates Likely R. Ohio's 10th, which they hold, was redrawn 2.1 points toward the Republicans; the market prices their contract at 86.0¢ against Knickerbocker's 18.0¢, down 1.0¢ across 25 observation days; the latest public poll has them 5 points ahead; and they have raised 2.5 dollars for every one of Knickerbocker's.

MARKET · PARTY WINNER Kalshi ↗
Michael R. Turner · Republican · KXHOUSERACE-OH10-26-R

86.0¢

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Michael R. Turner by name.

▼ 1.0¢

since Aug 3

2026-08-0325 observation days · high 88.0¢ · low 84.0¢2026-09-21
Michael R. Turner Republican · incumbent
86.0¢

Settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

Kristina Knickerbocker Democratic
18.0¢

Settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on this candidate by name.

Tom F. McMasters Libertarian
no contract on this candidate in the market

DEPTH ON THIS BOOK 50,238 traded · 28,049 open

Sides may not sum to 100. Prices are the yes ask. checked 1:29 AM ET

TURNER AGAINST KNICKERBOCKER · METRIC BY METRIC
Turner
Knickerbocker
MARKETchecked 1:29 AM ET

86.0¢

18.0¢

RAISED THIS CYCLEFederal Election Commission, through June 30, 2026

$895K

2.5:1 against Kristina Knickerbocker

$363K

WHAT THEY HOLD NOW

U.S. Representative

Ohio's 10th district · since 2025 · defending it

Holds no office

Challenger

POLL STANDINGGSG · (B-) · Jul 23 · n=700 LV

45%

5 points ahead

Latest of three public polls

40%

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWN R+5.7 → R+7.8

The Ohio Redistricting Commission adopted a congressional district plan on 31 October 2025; the plan remains in effect until Ohio redistricts after the 2030 census.

The record this is read from ↗

THE 2026 RACE · OHIO 10TH DISTRICT
LATEST POLL · STALE · 60 DAYSR+5GSG ↗ (B-) 07-23 · n=700 · 60 days old
PRIOR MARGIN+18.422024 general election · verified against official results
STANDING · THIS SEAT
+18.422024 general election margin — verified against official results
2.5:1fundraising ratio v Knickerbocker · FEC period 06-30
FUNDRAISING
$894.6Kraised
$556.3Kcash on hand
through June 30, 2026 · checked Aug 31
· Knickerbocker: $362.7K / $125.2K CoH
COMPARE V KNICKERBOCKER ⇄