Pennsylvania Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 15-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 97.7¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 97.7¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Safe DD+25 — Franklin & Marshall, Aug 27.Prior result · Likely DD+14.78 in 2022.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 97.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+25

Franklin & Marshall ↗ A- Aug 17 - 23, 26 · n=501 RV D+25 INDEPENDENT

Franklin & Marshall ↗ A- Aug 17 - 23 · n=501 RV D+25 INDEPENDENT

NYT/Siena ↗ A+ Aug 17 - 21, 26 · n=760 LV D+16 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+14.78

Josh Shapiro (D)

56.49 — 41.71 · 2022 general election

def. Doug Mastriano (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

5.9 to 1

Josh Shapiro$4.30M

Stacy Garrity$728.2K

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 06-08 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.