FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 15-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 97.2¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 97.2¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Safe DD+22.4 (average of 5 pollsters, Oct 5).Prior result · Likely DD+14.78 in 2022.MarketD 97.2¢PollsD+22.42022 resultD+14.8
MarketD 97.2¢PollsD+22.42022D+14.8
Market and polls both favor Shapiro.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above