FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: an 8-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 95¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Safe DD+21 (UNH, Sep 21).Market · Safe DD 95¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+8.06 in 2024.PollsD+21MarketD 95¢2024 resultD+8.1
MarketD 95¢PollsD+212024D+8.1
Market and polls both favor Shaheen.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through August 19, 2026; the two campaigns have raised about the same, so fundraising takes no place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.