New Hampshire 1st District
OPEN SEATPRIMARY 09-08
THE NOVEMBER FIELD · NEXT NOMINATING EVENT 09-08
View the primary field · 1 candidate
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 8-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 90¢ today.
Likely D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely DD 90¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean DD+8.06 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 90¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+8.06
Chris Pappas (D)
54 — 45.93 · 2024 general election
def. Russell Prescott (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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PULLED 07-30 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.