Kelly Kirschner
FL-16What the Signal reads
Lean R
Kirschner is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Kirschner at 17¢ against Gruters's 84¢, up 1¢ since August 3. The polling average has Gruters ahead by 3 points, and Gruters leads 3.6 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Kirschner · Democratic contract
17.0¢
▲ 1.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Kelly Kirschner by name.
16,807 traded · 13,106 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Kirschner v Gruters
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Florida 16th DistrictPolling average
R+3
Average of 2 pollsters, August 29 to October 2.
Prior result
R+19.0
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Vern Buchanan.
Fundraising
3.6 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.