FTP Race Signal is a live, automated reading of prediction-market odds, polling and fundraising. It does not purport to forecast outcomes or to reflect the views of FTP.
FTP Race Signal by band FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. The Signal changes only when the evidence clears the line.
Democrats need 3 of the 7 toss-ups to reach 51. Republicans need 5 of the 7 toss-ups to reach 50.*
*50 seats is a Republican majority: the Vice President, a Republican, breaks ties. The 2 independents caucus with the Democrats and are counted on that side.
The four maps
FTP Race Signal by state FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. The Signal changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The same ballots, two mapsEach district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines and again on the new lines. The same ballots, two maps. TN-9 went from Harris +43.4 to Trump +21.1 — a 64.5-point move. 2 districts — TN-2, TX-15 — were redrawn without their margins moving, and are on the file from their states' own map comparisons.17 districts change presidential winner · 11 toward Republicans, 6 toward Democrats
D+50EVENR+50MOVEMEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
D+50EVENR+50MOVEMEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
103 more districts were redrawn with smaller shifts
D+50EVENR+50MOVEMEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
FL-20+2.4VacantVacant at the redrawSheila Cherfilus-McCormick, whose term ended April 21, 2026. No member held this district on the day the map changed.
D+50EVENR+50MOVEMEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.