Tessa Lynn Hodge · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Hodge is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Hodge at 4.7¢ against Obernolte's 97.7¢, down 4.8¢ since August 3. Obernolte leads 18.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Hodge · Democratic contract

4.7¢

▼ 4.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Tessa Lynn Hodge by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 12¢ · low 4.7¢Oct 12

Tessa Lynn HodgeDemocratic

4.7¢

Jay ObernolteRepublican · incumbent

97.7¢

2,040 traded · 1,559 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Hodge v Obernolte

Metric by metric

Hodge

Obernolte

4.7¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.7¢

$79.5K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.46M

$10.2K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.64M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

California 23rd District

Prior result

R+20.2

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Jay Obernolte.

Fundraising

18.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.