Michael K. Simpson · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Simpson is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Simpson at 97.8¢ against Gilbreath's 5¢, up 3.8¢ since August 3. Simpson leads 10.4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Simpson · Republican contract

97.8¢

▲ 3.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Michael K. Simpson by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 94¢Oct 12

Michael K. SimpsonRepublican · incumbent

97.8¢

Elinor GilbreathDemocratic

5.0¢

5,194 traded · 4,046 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Simpson v Gilbreath

Metric by metric

Simpson

Gilbreath

97.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

5.0¢

$1.12M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$106.9K

$429.4K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$71.2K

U.S. Representativesince 1999

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Idaho 2nd District

Prior result

R+30.4

2024 general election, won by Michael K. Simpson.

Fundraising

10.4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.