Carlos A. Gimenez · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Gimenez is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Gimenez at 93¢ against Ehr's 9.2¢, up 5¢ since August 3. Gimenez leads 2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Gimenez · Republican contract

93.0¢

▲ 5.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Carlos A. Gimenez by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 96¢ · low 88¢Oct 12

Carlos A. GimenezRepublican · incumbent

93.0¢

Phil “Felipe” EhrDemocratic

9.2¢

8,156 traded · 5,309 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Gimenez v Ehr

Metric by metric

Gimenez

Ehr

93.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

9.2¢

$601.3K

RaisedFEC, through June 30 and July 29

$291.4K

$692.9K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30 and July 29

$366.6K

U.S. Representativesince 2021

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Florida 28th District

Prior result

R+29.1

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Carlos A. Gimenez.

Fundraising

2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+25.4 → R+25.5

Florida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +25.4 to Trump +25.5 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗