Doug Chapin · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Chapin is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Chapin at 5.1¢ against Emmer's 95¢, down 8.9¢ since August 3. Emmer leads 22.3 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Chapin · Democratic contract

5.1¢

▼ 8.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Doug Chapin by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 14¢ · low 5.1¢Oct 12

Doug ChapinDemocratic

5.1¢

Tom EmmerRepublican · incumbent

95.0¢

21,227 traded · 12,099 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Chapin v Emmer

Metric by metric

Chapin

Emmer

5.1¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

95.0¢

$438.7K

RaisedFEC, through July 22

$9.79M

$70.3K

Cash on handFEC, through July 22

$4.50M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2015

The 2026 race

Minnesota 6th District

Prior result

R+25.0

2024 general election, won by Tom Emmer.

Fundraising

22.3 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.